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In 2019, the European Commission required automakers to install onboard fuel consumption monitoring devices (OBFCMs) in vehicles sold in member states. The regulation applied to passenger cars registered in 2021 and vans registered in 2022. Now the first tranche of data from those devices has been collected, collated, and compiled and the results show that the real-world emissions of those vehicles are far greater than expected. Autocar has gone so far as to say, “The car industry is facing a possible crisis concerning real world fuel economy data — which could have wide-ranging repercussions as significant as the fallout from the Dieselgate emissions test cheating scandal.”

European Commission & WLTP

But first a little background. After Dieselgate, the EU moved to replace the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) laboratory based fuel economy tests, which dated back to 1992, with a new economy test format. The Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) arrived in 2017. The WLTP test cycle was longer (30 minutes instead of 20 minutes), conducted over a greater distance (14 miles instead of six miles), included less stopping, took in higher average speeds, and required greater levels of acceleration. Assurances were given that the WLTP driving cycle “was based on a global statistical survey of real driving profiles,” but in-car technology deployed by the EU in new cars since 2021 has now proved the test to be significantly overestimating the real-world economy of those vehicles, Autocar says.

On March 18, 2024, the European Commission published the first report based on the data supplied by 660,000 of those onboard devices. It found that the real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from diesel and petrol vehicles on the road are around 20 percent higher than indicated by the official values from the standardized WLTP type approval test used for regulatory purposes. Such a gap was anticipated, as there are different factors that affect real-world emissions which cannot all be fully replicated in a laboratory test, such as the traffic conditions, landscape, road conditions, ambient temperature, use of air conditioning and onboard electronics, and driver behavior.

For plug-in hybrid vehicles, the real-world CO2 emissions were on average 3.5 times higher than the laboratory values, which confirms that these vehicles are currently not realizing their potential largely because they are not being charged and driven on battery power alone as frequently as assumed. In other words, drivers typically don’t bother to plug those cars in. Too much work, one supposes, for busy people to be bothered with. Just use the gasoline engine and to hell with the battery and electric motor.

The Commission says it has already introduced changes to the calculation of the utility factor — the expected share of distance driven electrically — which is used to determine the CO2 emissions during the official test procedure. These changes will apply as of 2025 and may need to be further adjusted based on real-world data.

The Most Popular Cars Are The Worst Offenders

The upshot of the analysis, according to Autocar, is that models with the largest engines, heavier vehicles such as SUVs and luxury cars, plug-in hybrids, and conventional cars that underperform on emissions performance will now face renewed scrutiny by European authorities. The EU Court of Auditors also recommends that the EU follow the UK’s legislative lead and drop the current laws that make carmakers meet “fleet average” CO2 targets (currently 115.1g/km but dropping to 93.6g/km starting next year) and just institute “targets based instead on a minimum share of zero emission vehicles.”

With the exception of changing the way CO2 emissions from plug-in hybrids are calculated next year, the reaction of the European Commission to the report was relatively mild in tone. It said the initial data wasn’t yet “broad or representative enough to draw firm conclusions” but did express concern about the predominance of heavy SUVs and luxury vehicles, which stray even further from the WLTP results than mainstream cars.

However, a parallel report from the European Court of Auditors was more hard hitting. It admonished the European Commission and member states for not submitting real-world CO2 data in time, and wasn’t interested in simply refining current legislation for descending fleet CO2 targets. It said, “The key challenge for meeting emission reduction targets for 2030 and beyond will be to ensure a sufficient uptake of zero emission vehicles. In particular, it will be important to address electric vehicle affordability, provide sufficient electric vehicle charging infrastructure and secure the supply of raw materials to produce batteries.”

How Will The European Commission Respond?

More radically, the Court of Auditors wants the European Commission to tear up today’s emissions legislation by 2026. It said, “The Commission should assess the feasibility, costs, and benefits of the following changes to the [current] CO2 regulation, replacing the current EU and manufacturer-level targets with targets based instead on a minimum share of zero emission vehicles.”

That is pretty much what the UK did after Brexit. Furthermore, the Court of Auditors wants to see a “real world emissions cap at the manufacturer level, one that should not be exceeded for combustion engine cars and including all types of hybrids.” In other words, time to get serious people. Stop fooling around with half measures and get on with the business of reducing vehicle emissions substantially for all vehicles, especially those big, heavy cars that are all the rage these days.

Complying with the recommendations of the Court of Auditors will put all cars that are not battery electric in the spotlight. Reading between the lines, it could easily mean that the sale of heavier vehicles such as SUVs and luxury cars with larger engines in Europe could be reduced. No matter how the report shakes out, “it looks like the car industry is set for another earthquake in Europe,” Autocar says.

The Takeaway

What is happening here is a collision between what people want and what the Earth can tolerate before the environment that sustains human life collapses. The truth is, given a choice, most people would choose to drive a comfy luxury SUV rather than a cramped econobox, and who could blame them? We all want a 10 room house, 4 car garage, and swimming pool. What right does the government have to tell we can’t have these things?

Trying to force people to do the right thing is a big factor in the rise of autocratic governments, which gain supporters by promising to allow people to live the way they want to — until they get into power and the velvet glove comes off the iron fist. How Europe responds to this challenge will have global repercussions, and the result probably won’t be pretty. It’s hard to save people who don’t want to be saved.