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Posts from the ‘Transportation’ Category

May 19

U.S. Will Be Hard-Pressed to Meet Its Biofuel Mandates

Under the 2007 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency stipulates that gasoline and diesel refiners must blend a certain amount of “renewable fuel” into their products or face penalties.

The vast majority of the biofuel being produced now is corn-derived ethanol, on which the RFS places a cap of 15 billion gallons by 2015. So to satisfy the federal mandate that 36 billion gallons of biofuel be blended into the overall supply by 2022, the U.S. biofuels industry will have to produce a substantial amount of other types of biofuels—especially cellulosic ethanol, which can be made from wood chips and grasses.

But in 2007, Congress vastly overestimated the government’s ability to create a market for cellulosic biofuels, which remain much more expensive to produce than corn ethanol. There was no commercial production of cellulosic fuel in 2010 or 2011—even though the 2007 law originally called for 100 million and 250 million gallons, respectively, for those years (the requirements were subsequently scaled back to around 6.5 million gallons for each year). The chart above shows the actual biofuel production, so far, compared to future mandates.

via U.S. Will Be Hard-Pressed to Meet Its Biofuel Mandates  – Technology Review.

May 16

Obama’s Biggest Climate Decision Of The Year May Be … Palm Oil?

The Obama administration is poised to make one of the biggest climate policy decisions of its entire administration – and it’s not about coal, oil, or gas, but rainforests. EPA is deciding whether or not palm oil should be included in the Renewable Fuel Standard, which mandates that American motorists use 36 billion gallons of biofuel in their cars and trucks by 2022. In order to qualify for inclusion, palm oil would have to cut greenhouse gas pollution by at least 20 percent compared to gasoline.

Which means that it should be an easy call: Of all the biofuels, palm oil causes by far the most pollution because much of it is grown by clearing and burning dense rainforests, many of them on carbon-rich peatland, to make room for plantations. That widespread deforestation has made Indonesia the world’s third biggest global warming polluter, just behind China and the United States.

EPA recognized some of the problems with palm oil in its draft finding that palm oil does not qualify for inclusion in the RFS … but just barely. However, a close look at EPA’s draft finds that it used old and deeply flawed data to systematically underestimate the emissions from palm oil. For instance, the analysis draws on data on plantation expansion that ends in 2003 – not taking into account how much worse the palm oil industry has gotten since then.

Newer studies from the National Academies of Science and the International Council on Clean Transportation find that the palm oil industry’s carbon footprint just keeps getting bigger:

via Obama’s Biggest Climate Decision Of The Year May Be … Palm Oil? | ThinkProgress.

May 15

Study: Lithium Overcapacity, Consolidation Coming

After a year and a half of two mainstream electric vehicles hitting the market, I think it is safe to say that sales aren’t panning out how automakers had hoped. High prices, short range, and a down economy have old made electric cars a hard sell. That means all of the electric battery makers out there aren’t going to have the volume they were depending on. Lithium-ion battery overcapacity and company consolidation is coming, and coming soon.

It’s more bad news for the electric car industry. “Overcapacity” and “consolidation” is corporate speak for too much product and not enough customers. Companies will merge or die, which means more jobs lost, feeding more ammo to the enemies of electric vehicles. It also means some government loans might not ever be paid back in full.

The study, done by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants (RBSC) looks at the lithium-ion battery market and sees that oversaturation is inevitable. RBSC is considered one of Europe’s top-three consulting firms, and they pick five companies who they see as coming out on top when the dust settles.

via Study: Lithium Overcapacity, Consolidation Coming.

May 15

VCs still funding next-gen biofuel companies

Despite continued struggles for next-gen biofuel makers, venture capitalists are still putting money into startups, particularly when it comes to follow-on rounds. On Wednesday EdeniQ, which was spun out of AltraBiofuels in 2008 to focus on cellulosic ethanol processing, announced that it has raised another round of more than $30 million in equity and debt from investors including Kleiner Perkins, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, and The Westly Group.

A large ethanol producer and subsidiary of Koch Industries, Flint Hills Resources Renewables, also joined EdeniQ’s round as a new investor. Comerica and ATEL Ventures provided the debt. Flint is interested in EdeniQ because the startup has technology that can help a corn ethanol producer transition to cellulosic biofuels, which are made from energy crops or waste and are widely considered the future of biofuels.

EdeniQ originally raised $30 million when it launched back in 2008, and later raised $12.4 million, so the company’s total investment is close to $75 million. AltraBiofuels was also backed by substantial money — some hundreds of millions of dollars.

Cellulosic ethanol is facing a really tough road in the U.S. Amyris, which was one of the leaders a few short years ago after it went public, has hit a wall and recently reorganized its management team. MIT Tech Review reported that Amyris was very far away from being able to produce biodiesel profitably, leading to the company getting out of the biofuel business for the time being. Amyris’ stock is trading at $1.96 per share, far below its $16 per share price debut.

via VCs still funding next-gen biofuel companies — Cleantech News and Analysis.

May 15

Highest & Cheapest Gasoline Prices by Country

 

Highest & Cheapest Gas Prices by Country | The Big Picture.

May 15

New IMF Working Paper Models Impact of Oil Limits on the Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently issued a new working paper called “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology” (free PDF), which should be of interest to people who are following “peak oil” issues. This is a research paper that is being published to elicit comments and debate; it does not necessarily represent IMF views or policy.

The paper considers two different approaches for modeling future oil supply:

  1. The economic/technological approach, used by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others, and
  2. The geological view, used in peak oil forecasts, such as forecasts made by Colin Campbell and forecasts made using Hubbert Linearization.

The analysis in the IMF Working Paper shows that neither approach has worked perfectly, but in recent years, forecasts of oil supply using the geological view have tended to be closer than those using the economic/technological approach. Since neither model works perfectly, the new paper takes a middle ground: it sets up a model of oil supply where the amount of oil produced is influenced by a combination of (1) geological depletion and (2) price levels.

This blended model fits recent production amounts and recent price trends far better than traditional models. The forecasts it gives are concerning though. The new model indicates that (1) oil supply in the future will not rise nearly as rapidly as in the pre-2005 period and (2) oil prices are likely to nearly double in “real” (inflation-adjusted) terms by 2020. The world economy will be in uncharted territory if this happens.

It seems to me that this new model is a real step forward in looking at oil supply and the economy. The model, as it is today, points out a definite problem area (namely, the likelihood of oil high prices, if growth in oil production continues to be constrained below pre-2005 rates of increase). The researchers also raise good questions for further analysis.

At the same time, I am doubtful that the world GDP forecast of the new model is really right–it seems too high. The questions the authors raise point in this direction as well. Below the fold, I discuss the model, its indications, and some shortcomings I see.

via The Oil Drum | New IMF Working Paper Models Impact of Oil Limits on the Economy.

May 14

Toyota Prius PHV Sales Surpass Chevy Volt in April 2012

When the electrified Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf hit the market, it was with big hype yet small sales. By contrast, the new Prius Plug-in hybrid quietly started arriving at Toyota dealerships a few months ago, and it is already moving more units than its fellow cord-compatible competitors. Last month, Toyota’s plug-in addition to the Prius family sold more than both the plug-in hybrid Volt and the all-electric Leaf in the United States, helping to cement the Prius nameplate as a dominant force in the green-vehicle market.

According to PluginCars.com, the 2012 Toyota Prius Plug-in sold 1,654 units in April, compared to the Chevy Volt’s 1,462 units and the Leaf’s sparse 370 units. The Prius Plug-in’s performance bolstered the best-ever April for the Prius family, which more than doubled its sales year-over-year to become the third-most-popular passenger car on the market last month.

“It shows the strength of the Prius name when a plug-in model can arrive pretty much under the radar and outsell competing models that have had so much publicity behind them,” said Wade Sterry, general manager of Russel Toyota, a Baltimore, Maryland Toyota dealer. “The Prius Plug-in also offers a smaller, less expensive battery than the Leaf and Volt, so recharging takes less time. It allows its owners to benefit from electricity without having to be fully dependent on a charging station.”

via Toyota Prius PHV Sales Surpass Chevy Volt in April 2012: #evworld.

May 14

The Global Electric Vehicle Movement: Best Practices From 16 Cities – Forbes

Global leaders want to have 20 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road worldwide by 2020. Last year, some 40,000 EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) were sold around the world. If the J-shaped growth expectations are to be realized, the cost of advanced batteries must continue to fall and smart policies must accelerate the adoption of EVs in urban areas.

A new report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) tackles the latter. The EV City Casebook (PDF), compiled by IEA with the Rocky Mountain Institute, the Clean Energy Ministerial’s Electric Vehicles Initiative, and C40 Cities, details best practices from 16 cities in nine countries.

The profiled cities, from Shanghai to the tiny Goto Islands of Japan, account for 30% of the EVs on the road today. The other cities profiled are Amsterdam; Barcelona; Berlin; BrabantStad (The Netherlands); Hamburg; Helsinki; Kanagawa Prefecture (Japan); Los Angeles; New York City; North East England; Portland (Oregon); Research Triangle (North Carolina); Rotterdam; and Stockholm. (For more detail about efforts under way to promote EVs in Portland, read my profile of Electric Avenue and distillation of 10 EV charging lessons learned published at this blog in March.)

via The Global Electric Vehicle Movement: Best Practices From 16 Cities – Forbes.

May 14

PG&E Proposes New and Improved Electric Car Rates

The biggest electric utility in California, the largest car market in the country, just took an important step to give drivers access to a cleaner fuel that’s roughly the equivalent of buck-a-gallon gasoline. Pacific Gas & Electric (“PG&E”) has submitted a proposal for new and improved rate plans that encourage electric car drivers to charge when there’s plenty of spare capacity on the electrical grid, at a price that, in real dollars, is less than half what gas cost in 1949.[1]

To be clear, PG&E already has rates designed for electric cars, but those rates are unnecessarily complex and in need of an update, which is why the California Public Utilities Commission directed PG&E to develop new, simpler options for electric vehicle drivers. Yesterday’s proposal is actually the second attempt by PG&E to comply with that directive. The first one spurred 75 letters of protest from some vocal electric car customers who objected to some of the proposed changes. The plan PG&E submitted yesterday addresses the concerns raised in those protest letters and should significantly improve the fundamental economics of vehicle electrification in a large portion of the Golden State.

Both the original PG&E proposal and the one submitted yesterday offer the lowest prices during nighttime hours to encourage drivers to charge when there’s plenty of spare capacity in the electrical grid. But the new proposal is more attractive across the board, and and has more hours during the weekend when drivers can take advantage of the lowest price. More good news for electric cars in California, whereas the original proposal would have imposed an $8.00 monthly customer charge, the new proposal has no customer charge. Likewise, whereas the original proposal would have simply replaced the existing electric car rates, the new proposal would allow those customers who like their current rate plan to keep it until 2015.

via PG&E Proposes New and Improved Electric Car Rates | Clean Fleet Report.

May 14

GM’s Akerson: The Truth About the Volt Fire

Politics are playing a role in criticism of General Motors’ plug-in hybrid electric Chevy Volt, according to GM’s Chairman Daniel Akerson.

Much of the criticism has come from critics of the auto industry bailout, and focuses on reports that a Volt caught fire following a crash test.

A National Highway Traffic Safety Administration report in December 2011 citing the fire generated such huge press coverage that GM offered to buy back Volts from any owner who feared the potential for a fire.

An adamant proponent of the hybrid, Akerson set the record straight with Newsmax.TV on what exactly happened in the Volt “fire.”

“I drive one of them,” he says. “Zero emissions. I’ve now put 3,000 miles on my car. I’ve used one gallon of gas.”

As for criticism of the Volt, Akerson says: “It’s funny to me. I don’t have the luxury of seeing the world through a political prism. If you watch NBC they say it’s the greatest car ever made. You watch Fox, they say it’s the worst car ever made, and they say there have been explosions and fires. Let me give you a few facts: There’s never been a fire in a Volt. Never.

“When we tested it we purposely hit it, rolled it, and we did not discharge the battery. If you have a combustion-engine car that has an accident, after the first responders extricate you from your car, they drain the gas tank and they disconnect the 12-volt battery. Well, when we did this the car was totaled. We didn’t discharge the battery, which is first responder protocol. We put it in a junkyard, and three weeks later there was a smoldering fire. No explosion. No nothing.

“We’ve got over six million miles on these cars today and not one fire.

via GM’s Akerson: The Truth About the Volt Fire.

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