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Posts from the ‘Reports’ Category

May 26

Sandia Releases Web Tool to Evaluate Energy Storage Options

Sandia National Laboratories and the Department of Energy have released a new tool to help utilities, developers and regulators identify the energy storage options that best meet their needs.

Partnering with DNV KEMA, a global testing and consulting firm, Sandia is releasing Energy Storage Select, or ES-Select, software under a public license to the company. The tool makes it easier to conduct a quick, high-level analysis of energy storage options and determine the value of energy storage technologies for a specified application, which developers say will increase the adoption of energy storage technologies.

“ES-Select is the first of a suite of easily accessible web tools to help potential users and regulators to make decisions on energy storage options in specific applications,” said Imre Gyuk, program manager of DOE’s Energy Storage program.

The application is available for free download on Sandia’s Energy Storage website. “This tool is designed to help users to understand at a basic level what storage can do. If it looks beneficial from a cost standpoint, they can explore the options further,” said Sandia project manager Dhruv Bhatnagar.

via Sandia Releases Web Tool to Evaluate Energy Storage Options | PeteSinger.

May 26

S & P Opines on Securitizing Distributed Generation

Renewable energy-related asset securitization has been gaining a lot of traction lately as a number of key stakeholders from both the private and public sectors have been stepping up their collaborative efforts (including NREL’s finance team). To help frame the discussion and facilitate the creation of ratings-quality renewable energy asset pools, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) rating agency has recently produced high-level guidance on various possible risk factors in the potential securitization of renewable energy assets, cash flows, or loans.

An opinion paper published by S&P earlier this year titled, “Will Securitization Help Fuel The U.S. Solar Power Industry?” (accessible here) focused on a number of risks associated with the securitization of future solar lease or power purchase agreement (PPA) payments. Like mortgages, in order for S&P to adequately assess the credit risk associated with these cash flow-based securities, payment default risks must be understood and reasonably quantified. From S&P’s perspective, much of this payment default risk can be attributed to system performance, of which there is not an adequate amount of historical information that ensures solar panel performance is maintained over the full length of most 20-year PPA and lease cash flow agreements.

via S & P Opines on Securitizing Distributed Generation | Renewable Energy Project Finance.

May 26

Have Wind, CSP, and PV Turned Against Each Other?

The three major investor-owned utilities (IOUs) in California are well on their way to meeting their obligations to provide a third of their power from renewable sources by 2020. As a result, they and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), their regulators, are no longer thinking only about the quantity of the renewables they want. They are starting to think more carefully about the quality of the renewables and how they will fit into utility portfolios.

As of May 2012, according to the CPUC, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) had procured renewables capacity equal to 20.09 percent of its 2011 electricity. San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E) had procured 20.80 percent, and Southern California Edison (SCE) had 21.07 percent. At recent conferences in San Francisco, San Diego, and Phoenix, renewables investors repeated, off-the-record, that the IOUs may have as much as three-quarters of their 2020 obligations under contract.

To determine the best economic choices to fill out the remainder of the renewables portfolio, the CPUC is considering a new formula. In his April 5 Rulemaking, Commissioner Mark Ferron described a redefinition of the 2004 “least cost, best fit” formula for capturing the full range of costs and benefits of renewables selected to meet the RPS.

via Have Wind, CSP, and PV Turned Against Each Other? : Greentech Media.

May 19

New IMF Working Paper Models Impact of Oil Limits on the Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently issued a new working paper called “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology” (free PDF), which should be of interest to people who are following “peak oil” issues. This is a research paper that is being published to elicit comments and debate; it does not necessarily represent IMF views or policy.

The paper considers two different approaches for modeling future oil supply:

  • The economic/technological approach, used by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others, and
  • The geological view, used in peak oil forecasts, such as forecasts made by Colin Campbell and forecasts made using Hubbert Linearization.

The analysis in the IMF Working Paper shows that neither approach has worked perfectly, but in recent years, forecasts of oil supply using the geological view have tended to be closer than those using the economic/technological approach. Since neither model works perfectly, the new paper takes a middle ground: it sets up a model of oil supply where the amount of oil produced is influenced by a combination of (1) geological depletion and (2) price levels.

via The Oil Drum | New IMF Working Paper Models Impact of Oil Limits on the Economy.

May 15

Two New Reports on Utility-Scale Solar from NREL

Utility-scale solar is still something of a novelty in the renewable energy ecosystem. Large-scale deployment of these multi-megawatt (MW) installations has only recently been enabled in the United States by two key pieces of federal legislation and state-level implementation of renewable energy standards. The market boomed in 2011, adding more than 760 MW of capacity and ending the year with a bullish outlook for 2012. In April, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) published a series of three reports on the market, technologies, policies, and cost of energy of utility-scale solar facilities in the United States. These reports provide a comprehensive portrait of this dynamic segment of the solar market.

The first report in the series, Utility-Scale Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics Projects: A Technology and Market Overview, offers a rundown of all the technologies that have been and are currently employed in producing solar power at the utility-scale (defined in the report as projects of 5 MW or above). Several of these technologies are familiar (e.g., crystalline silicon PV and parabolic trough solar thermal systems), but some exotic representatives are also in the mix (e.g., linear Fresnel, and the far-out “solar chimney” and “space solar” projects currently under contract with California utilities).

via Two New Reports on Utility-Scale Solar from NREL | Renewable Energy Project Finance.

May 15

U.S. Coal Generation Drops 19 Percent In One Year, Leaving Coal With 36 Percent Share Of Electricity

Power generation from coal is falling quickly. According to new figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal made up 36 percent of U.S. electricity in the first quarter of 2012 — down from 44.6 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

That stunning drop, which represented almost a 20 percent decline in coal generation over the last year, was primarily due to low natural gas prices. As EIA explains, natural gas generation will climb steadily this year, while coal will see a double-digit drop by the end of 2012:

Natural‐gas‐fired generation continues to expand its share of total generation at the expense of coal‐fired generation. During the first quarter of 2012, natural gas accounted for 28.7 percent of total generation compared with 20.7 percent during the same quarter last year. In contrast, coal’s share of total generation declined from 44.6 percent to 36.0 percent over the same period.

Prices for natural gas delivered to the electric power industry fell by 7.5 percent in 2011, which contributed to a significant increase in the share of natural‐gas‐fired generation. EIA expects this trend to continue in 2012, with electric power sector coal consumption falling by 14 percent. Natural gas in the electric power sector grows by almost 21 percent in 2012, primarily driven by the increasing relative cost advantages of natural gas over coal for power generation in some regions.

via U.S. Coal Generation Drops 19 Percent In One Year, Leaving Coal With 36 Percent Share Of Electricity | ThinkProgress.

May 15

How U.S. Utilities Can Avoid A Risky $2 Trillion Bet

When your company’s job is to keep the lights on, you have to be cautious about risk. Power has to be there when people need it.

Risk comes in different forms, and there are times when business as usual becomes a risk in itself. America’s electric utilities are approaching just such a moment.

Across the country, a generation of power plants and transmission systems is aging and needs to be replaced. At the same time, rules on pollution and greenhouse gas emissions are tightening. Clean energy technologies are getting cheaper and gaining market share. These shifts coincide with record spending: Utilities are expected to make $2 trillion in capital investments over the next 20 years – about double their recent spending rate.

How to move forward in this complex, risky environment? That’s the subject of a new report from Ceres, Practicing Risk-Aware Electricity Regulation: What Every State Regulator Needs to Know.

The industry experts who wrote the report analyzed a range of investment decisions utilities could make over the next two decades – decisions that will determine which utilities prosper and how their shareholders, ratepayers, and the wider society will be affected. The economic as well as environmental stakes are high.

via How U.S. Utilities Can Avoid A Risky $2 Trillion Bet | ThinkProgress.

May 15

New IMF Working Paper Models Impact of Oil Limits on the Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently issued a new working paper called “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology” (free PDF), which should be of interest to people who are following “peak oil” issues. This is a research paper that is being published to elicit comments and debate; it does not necessarily represent IMF views or policy.

The paper considers two different approaches for modeling future oil supply:

  1. The economic/technological approach, used by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others, and
  2. The geological view, used in peak oil forecasts, such as forecasts made by Colin Campbell and forecasts made using Hubbert Linearization.

The analysis in the IMF Working Paper shows that neither approach has worked perfectly, but in recent years, forecasts of oil supply using the geological view have tended to be closer than those using the economic/technological approach. Since neither model works perfectly, the new paper takes a middle ground: it sets up a model of oil supply where the amount of oil produced is influenced by a combination of (1) geological depletion and (2) price levels.

This blended model fits recent production amounts and recent price trends far better than traditional models. The forecasts it gives are concerning though. The new model indicates that (1) oil supply in the future will not rise nearly as rapidly as in the pre-2005 period and (2) oil prices are likely to nearly double in “real” (inflation-adjusted) terms by 2020. The world economy will be in uncharted territory if this happens.

It seems to me that this new model is a real step forward in looking at oil supply and the economy. The model, as it is today, points out a definite problem area (namely, the likelihood of oil high prices, if growth in oil production continues to be constrained below pre-2005 rates of increase). The researchers also raise good questions for further analysis.

At the same time, I am doubtful that the world GDP forecast of the new model is really right–it seems too high. The questions the authors raise point in this direction as well. Below the fold, I discuss the model, its indications, and some shortcomings I see.

via The Oil Drum | New IMF Working Paper Models Impact of Oil Limits on the Economy.

May 14

The Global Electric Vehicle Movement: Best Practices From 16 Cities – Forbes

Global leaders want to have 20 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road worldwide by 2020. Last year, some 40,000 EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) were sold around the world. If the J-shaped growth expectations are to be realized, the cost of advanced batteries must continue to fall and smart policies must accelerate the adoption of EVs in urban areas.

A new report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) tackles the latter. The EV City Casebook (PDF), compiled by IEA with the Rocky Mountain Institute, the Clean Energy Ministerial’s Electric Vehicles Initiative, and C40 Cities, details best practices from 16 cities in nine countries.

The profiled cities, from Shanghai to the tiny Goto Islands of Japan, account for 30% of the EVs on the road today. The other cities profiled are Amsterdam; Barcelona; Berlin; BrabantStad (The Netherlands); Hamburg; Helsinki; Kanagawa Prefecture (Japan); Los Angeles; New York City; North East England; Portland (Oregon); Research Triangle (North Carolina); Rotterdam; and Stockholm. (For more detail about efforts under way to promote EVs in Portland, read my profile of Electric Avenue and distillation of 10 EV charging lessons learned published at this blog in March.)

via The Global Electric Vehicle Movement: Best Practices From 16 Cities – Forbes.

May 14

I Want My TLC: Attaining Transparency, Longevity and Certainty in the California Renewables Market

Back in 2009, Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors (“DB”) published a study tracking 270 major climate policies in 109 countries. The study concluded that successful programs were those that offered investors “TLC” — transparency, longevity, certainty — a comprehensive, stable, and predictable set of rules that infused markets with a sense of clarity and security. The research went on to find that the United States lacked TLC and was lagging behind other countries, notably China and Germany. A more recent DB paper found little to cheer about at the Federal level in the U.S. Referring to the gridlock in Congress on energy policy, the paper noted “…while Congress stumbles, the U.S. stands to fall behind.”

While other countries have adopted strong policy frameworks with integrated plans and clear targets, incentives and mandates, the Federal regulatory regime has been described as a “chaotic patchwork, constantly changing,” with short-term approaches that amount to nothing more than just stop gap measures, with many sun-setting in 2011. A glaring example of this shortsightedness is Congress’ failure thus far to extend the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind projects, which expires at the end of 2012.

Given the long lead-time needed for siting, permitting, interconnecting, and financing wind projects, the industry has come to a virtual standstill with only projects certain of qualifying for the PTC moving forward. Other PTCs expire in 2013, and other programs such as the 1603, 1703, and 1705 incentives ended last year. (The recently proposed rule for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from new power plants announced by the Obama administration may restore some credibility in the U.S., but it is too early to tell.)

via I Want My TLC: Attaining Transparency, Longevity and Certainty in the California Renewables Market | Renewable Energy News Article.

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