A forthcoming book argues that the country’s shale gas plays contain only about a quarter of the fuel that has been estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and other widely used industry and academic assessments.

Cold, Hungry and In the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth by Bill Powers asserts that the quantity of unproved but technically recoverable natural gas in U.S. shale plays is approximately 127 trillion cubic feet, or about a quarter of the 482 tcf estimated by the EIA in its Annual Energy Outlook for 2012.

Powers, who publishes a newsletter for energy investors, argues that existing natural gas plays have not been nearly as productive as their backers predicted, and so cannot be expected to live up to expectations for future output.

“Recent drilling success has been extrapolated into the future,” said Powers, who also sits on the board of the Calgary oil and gas company Arsenal Energy. “That’s not supported by drilling history.”

via Are US Shale Gas Resources Overstated? : Greentech Media.