In this post I will, amongst other things, present the results from my review of the Bakken portion of Leonardo Maugeri’s discussion paper “The Shale Oil Boom: A U.S. Phenomenon”

Leonardo Maugeri is an ex-ENI executive now with the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center which receives funds from BP. His discussion paper presents his findings from “tracking” 4,000 tight oil wells in USA.

Maugeri forecasts total U.S. tight oil production to reach 5 Mb/d by end 2017 of which 1.8 Mb/d from Bakken.

In this review I have examined Maugeri’s well productivity claims, cash flow developments and transport/infrastructure issues (which has been ignored by Maugeri).

This post is based upon my previous posts about Bakken;

Is Shale Oil Production from Bakken Headed for a Run with “The Red Queen”?

Is the Typical NDIC Bakken Tight Oil Well a Sales Pitch?

Will the Bakken “Red Queen” have to run faster?

During my studies of tight oil wells in Bakken I have looked at the history of about 5,000 wells in Montana and North Dakota.

Considering the number of wells studied that formed the basis for Maugeri’s paper and over time the huge individual variations in well productivities, decline rates etc., it would have been good if the paper had also presented more of the statistical analysis performed that would support its findings.

Statistics is an excellent and powerful tool for analyzing such extensive research.

via The Oil Drum | Maugeri Misses Bakken ”Red Queen”.