As my last post said, market fundamentals predict prices pretty well when there are minimal threats to oil supplies.  This was certainly true in the 1990s, when there was almost no surplus capacity in OPEC, but also little expectation of any supply disruptions.  There was a perception that oil had become just another commodity.

via Forbes – Energy http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2013/09/13/high-oil-prices-and-the-security-premium/