New Zealand’s gas market has been moving from self-sufficient to structurally tight. Domestic output has almost halved in the last 7 years, falling from an average 415 million m³/month in 2017 to 215 million m³/month in 2025, stripping out the buffer that once covered seasonal swings and dry-year hydro shortfalls. The drought-driven winters of 2024–2025 exposed a new reality: as hydro weakened, the country’s power system leaned harder on thermal generation just as gas supply was tightening, triggering sharp spikes in…

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