Mexico’s crude oil exports are shrinking fast – and this time the decline is not just a symptom of upstream exhaustion. Average crude exports have fallen from about 1.1 million b/d in 2020 to roughly 665,000 b/d in 2025, a near 40% drop. In December 2025, Mexico’s exports reached 503,000 b/d, marking a 21st century minimum. The drastic decrease is even starker for Maya, Mexico’s flagship heavy grade: December exports slid to 253,000 b/d, down 86% from 2020 levels. Ironically, the rapid decline in Mexico’s crude exports…

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