The Illusion of Randomness in Oil Markets Anyone who trades crude oil futures has seen it happen. Price sells off hard into a round number, stalls, and then snaps violently higher. Or oil grinds higher all morning, only to reverse sharply mid-session with no headline, no inventory release, no obvious catalyst. This can be especially confusing for fundamental traders and analysts who try to explain price action solely through data and headlines. To many, these moves appear random. In reality, they aren’t random at all. Many of these moves…

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