According to GTM Research’s latest edition of the PV Pulse, the global blended average price for a tier-1 Chinese-produced multicrystalline PV module fell 10 percent year-over-year and reached 57 cents per watt in the fourth quarter of 2015.

“While underwhelming demand in 2014 left its trace on pricing in early 2015, supply-demand tightness and tariffs drove price trends in the second half of the year,” said Jade Jones, a senior solar analyst at GTM Research.

Here are GTM Research’s estimates for component prices as of the fourth quarter of 2014.

FIGURE: Selling Prices, Q4 2015

Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016

Assuming a stable supply-demand landscape, GTM Research anticipates that global blended prices will steadily fall at an annualized rate of 5 percent and reach 44 cents per watt by 2020.

Source: GTM Research PV Pulse, March 2016

In the near term, GTM Research’s initial outlook sees polysilicon and wafer prices up year-over-year. Jones notes that the polysilicon pricing forecast is driven by inventory and margin recovery, while wafer prices are driven by a tight supply-demand balance. Cell and module prices are both expected to be down this year.

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GTM Research’s PV Pulse tracks monthly technology, supply and pricing trends in the global PV supply chain. Contact sales@gtmresearch.com for information on pricing.

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