In a statement posted on his X page recently, Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy, highlighted that the monthly oil market reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC “continue to highlight a massive divergence in 2026 demand growth expectations”.

Hansen, who noted in the statement that the gap between OPEC on one hand and the two others now exceeds two million barrels per day, pointed out that OPEC “remains the clear outlier, still expecting demand to grow by around 0.6 million barrels per day”. He outlined  that the EIA and IEA “have progressively raised their contraction forecasts to around 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.6 million barrels per day, respectively”.

“The widening gap highlights the extraordinary uncertainty surrounding the demand outlook following six months of Middle East supply disruption and elevated energy prices,” Hansen said in the statement.

“It also helps explain why crude oil has struggled to sustain a stronger rally despite tight physical conditions: the market is balancing severe near-term supply constraints against growing concerns that high prices and weaker economic activity are already producing a meaningful demand response,” he added.

Hansen went on to state that, in 2027, “the divergence largely disappears as all three forecasters expect global oil demand growth to rebound strongly next year, with their latest estimates clustering around 2.2–2.4 million barrels per day”.

“This suggests the disagreement is less about the longer-term trajectory of oil consumption and more about the scale and duration of the demand destruction triggered by this year’s supply shock and elevated prices,” Hansen concluded.

2026 Demand

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released this month, the EIA projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption will average 102.73 million barrels per day in 2026. This figure came in at 103.98 million barrels per day in 2025, the STEO showed.

OECD consumption is expected to drop from 45.91 million barrels per day in 2025 to 45.50 million barrels per day in 2026 and non-OECD demand is expected to drop from 58.08 million barrels per day last year to 57.24 million barrels per day this year, the STEO revealed.

The IEA’s August oil market report projected that oil demand will decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, which the organization pointed out is 510,000 barrels per day more than its estimate in last month’s report, “as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption”.

In its latest monthly oil market report, OPEC revealed that it expects global oil demand to grow by 0.6 million barrels per day year on year in 2026, which it pointed out was “a slight downward revision” from its July assessment.

“The OECD is forecast to slightly decline by about 40,000 barrels per day, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.6 million barrels per day,” OPEC noted in its report.

2027 Demand

The EIA’s August STEO projected that world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption will come in at 104.96 million barrels per day in 2027, which marks a 2.23 million barrel per day year on year increase.

OECD consumption is expected to grow from 45.50 million barrels per day in 2026 to 45.81 million barrels per day in 2027 and non-OECD demand is expected to increase from 57.24 million barrels per day this year to 59.15 million barrels per day next year, the EIA’s latest STEO showed.

In its August oil market report, the IEA outlined that annual contractions in oil demand will ease from 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 2.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter, before returning to growth in the final quarter. It revealed that the IEA projects that global oil demand will expand by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report revealed that OPEC is forecasting that global oil demand will grow by about 2.2 million barrels per day year on year in 2027. The report pointed out that this was an upward revision from OPEC’s assessment last month.

“The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.3 million barrels per day [in 2027], while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.8 million barrels per day,” OPEC stated in its report.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com