A further 12GW of projects on federal lands and up to 80GW on private lands could be exposed to heightened federal oversight, putting investment at risk, the report noted.

The findings in the report relate to the consequences of a Department of Interior (DOI) memorandum issued last July, which centralised federal review across nearly all solar and wind projects in the US and handed interior secretary Doug Burgum the final say on permitting. At the time, the elevated review process drew sharp criticism from the industry for creating an unnecessarily onerous layer of bureaucracy.

According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, solar has the largest absolute exposure under the new permitting regime, with 30% of its pipeline at risk of additional review. Wind, however, has the highest proportional exposure, with 62% of its pipeline affected. Energy storage is also significantly impacted, with more than one-quarter of planned capacity facing heightened permitting scrutiny.

Under the DOI permitting rules, 32% of the early-stage project pipeline—those that are announced, under development or already permitted—is now subject to additional federal review.

According to the report, projects scheduled for 2029 account for the largest volume of capacity at risk of additional review on federal lands, potentially jeopardising their tax credit eligibility. Projects in Texas are the most exposed, followed by California and Arizona, where concentrated federal oversight may delay commercial operation dates beyond planned timelines.

“Permitting remains one of the most critical barriers to advancing new projects, and without more coordinated and predictable processes, delays and uncertainty will continue to weigh on development timelines and investment decisions,” said Gaby Ackermann Logan, research associate at Wood Mackenzie.

“For storage in particular, where development is often tied to solar, permitting uncertainty has a compounding effect. The policy landscape is shifting quickly, and developers who can anticipate where the friction points are will be better positioned to protect their timelines and maintain project bankability.”

Wood Mackenzie said it was monitoring the outcome of two developments that could materially affect the outlook of projects impacted by the federal permitting rules.

One is a federal court preliminary injunction granted in April, blocking agency actions that imposed new restrictions and expanded review requirements for solar and wind projects. While the injunction does not resolve broader permitting bottlenecks, Wood Mackenzie said it limited further disruption and “underscores the need for more coordinated and predictable federal permitting processes”.

Separately, the Simplifying Permitting and Ending Endless Delays (SPEED) Act, approved by the House of Representatives in December 2025 and currently awaiting Senate and Executive approval, proposes extensive reforms to environmental permitting requirements for big infrastructure projects. Wood Mackenzie said that, if enacted, the SPEED Act could “meaningfully reduce permitting timelines for infrastructure projects, including renewable energy development”, though concerns have also been voiced that the reforms could favour fossil fuel extraction.