A combination of surging local production and increased imports from non-Middle East suppliers have helped Europe to avoid a jet fuel crisis that some had feared going into the continent’s summer-vacation season.

The continent’s longstanding reliance on imports from the Persian Gulf had sparked fears of potential shortages because the Iran war blocked cargo flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping corridor through which tankers must pass to reach global markets.

Early in the conflict, airlines canceled some flights, jet fuel prices shot to a record, and the International Energy Agency warned of possible demand destruction.

But rather than result in shortages, the blockage has caused refiners to tweak their operations while imports from some key non-Persian Gulf suppliers ramped up. The message from the region’s airlines and fuelmakers is that holidaymakers needn’t fret about their vacation this year.

“Our fuel suppliers don’t expect problems this summer,” said Thomas Thessen, chief analyst at SAS AB. While prices are still relatively high, most airlines probably feel they are — at least to some extent — “in control of the situation.”

While imports from the Middle East plunged, arrivals soared from the US and Nigeria, home to a giant and relatively new refinery.

At the same time, data from consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd. show the continent’s refiners skewed their production toward jet fuel and kerosene, helping them to ramp output above seasonal norms. 

Spanish refiner Repsol SA said in an emailed response to questions that it has managed to increase jet fuel yields by up to 25%. 

Two months into the conflict, Shell Plc said that every oil refinery in Europe was maximizing output of the fuel to help cope with the Hormuz blockage. It owns the giant Pernis plant in Rotterdam, the continent’s largest.

The result has been impressive: air traffic remains healthy, even surpassing 2025 levels in recent weeks, according to figures from Eurocontrol. 

“The jet fuel market has managed to limit the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure by partially replacing missing volumes from the Middle East with imports from other sources and increased jet fuel production in the European Union,” the EU said in a statement.

Around a dozen airline-industry executives around the world expressed confidence about fuel-supply through summer and beyond, adding that the primary concern is about prices. Large groups, including IAG SA and Air France-KLM, have said they diversified supplies to deal with the situation. 

Still, some carriers said that, despite reassurances over fuel security, passengers nevertheless remain wary of traveling because of a mix of concerns about the economy and the perceived risk of being stranded while abroad if a plane doesn’t have enough fuel. As a consequence, some travelers are booking later or avoiding long haul routes.

“Our contractual customers can be fully supplied at this time,” said oil refiner OMV AG. “At present, there are no indications of any disruptions in supply chains.”

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