Russia’s oil-processing is being degraded as sanctions prevent the refining industry from recovering from more intense and precise Ukrainian drone strikes, according to the International Energy Agency. 

“It now appears likely that the persistent drone strikes and the patchwork nature of repairs are having a cumulative negative effect and degrading the refining system,” the Paris-based agency said in a monthly oil report published Friday. 

Ukraine has been attacking Russia’s energy infrastructure to reduce the nation’s ability to process and export crude and curtail the Kremlin’s revenues used to finance the full-scale invasion. In August, the Russian oil refineries were hit at least 22 times, the highest monthly total since the start of the war, according to a Bloomberg tally based on public statements from both nations.  

The IEA revised down its baseline outlook for Russian oil processing over the next 18 months to around 4 million barrels a day, down 30% from levels before the invasion of Ukraine, it said.

“Risks remain that even this more cautious assessment may yet understate the problems that Russia’s refining complex faces,” according to the report. “Longer lead-times to source replacement parts and the approach of colder weather could compound the stress placed on the Russian system.”

Russia’s government introduced temporary bans on exports of most diesel, gasoline and jet fuel to bolster domestic supplies, but some regions still had to introduce fuel rationing.

Since late August, Russia has ramped up the frequency of its own air assaults on Ukraine and its capital city in particular, using jet-powered drones that are harder to intercept. The strategy has increased the risk of civilian casualties.

Ukraine’s military capabilities have been improving, including the efficacy of its strikes on Russian refineries, according to the IEA. 

“Ukrainian forces are using multiple drone waves against single sites, overwhelming protective netting and air defences,” the report said. “The targeting also appears more precise.” 

Drones are now hitting secondary-processing units at Russia’s refineries, which may require six to eight months to replace, according to the IEA estimates. International sanctions against the Russian energy industry are limiting its access to replacement equipment, further complicating the repairs.

The IEA has also lowered its 2026 forecast for Russia’s crude supply forecast by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million barrels per day amid lower refinery runs, it said.

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